Brett King

Archive for the ‘Social Networking’ Category

How many jobs will digital kill off in banking?

In Bank Innovation, Economics, Future of Banking, Social Networking, Strategy, Technology Innovation on January 16, 2012 at 08:35

I’m starting to hear of some very significant digital and multi-channel budgets being put in place by many of the leading retail banking brands in 2012. It’s about time!

While I won’t name names or budgets, I’ve heard of mid-sized banks dedicating more than $50m to Internet, mobile and social-media this year, and large banks in the range of many hundreds of millions. It’s obvious from some of the outcomes in 2012 that major brands like Citibank, BBVA, CommBank, and Amex, for example, are putting some major spend into various initiatives on the digital engagement side. Key to these activities is some groundwork around platform development, staying competitive on the customer interface side, exploring the mobile wallet and new forms of loyalty around payments, and of course, big social media plans.

2011 was a tough year for many bank brands

As earnings reports have been coming in this quarter, it’s no surprise that 2011 was a tough year for the big banks. Of course, I’ve also heard of major brands in the space whose budgets are woefully thin and spell major problems for them on a competitive front this year, some of these banks are already hurting. How can I argue that budgets for digital are too thin in the current environment? Well, when a major global brand in the space spends less on social media globally than the cost of deploying one branch in central London or New York, and they are yet to have any type of coherent social media strategy (no real Twitter presence as an example), that is a budget out of kilter with the reality of customer behavior and acquisition/retention mechanics.

The Intertia Problem

While I’m sure I’ll hear the justification that the economy and particularly the ongoing Euro crisis is the primary cause, there must be a recognition that banks are simply carrying a lot of redundant capacity, based on the old paradigms of the way banks should operate, and are under-invested in the new platforms and skills that will help them grow their business out of the current economic malaise. This appears to be forcing banks to try new fee structures to cover the costs of legacy business operations, rather than adapting the organization and thus cost structures. I could call out legacy branch infrastructure again, but I won’t beat a dead horse, as they say – the economics of that are becoming glaringly obvious to most. So let’s take two other simple examples where the organizational behavior is skewed by inertia:

Account Opening and Administration
With average account acquisition costs being in the range of $250-350, you would think that someone would have connected the dots between the need for a signature card (and related physical handling) at account opening, with the cost of acquisition. The easiest way to reduce acquisition costs is get rid of the paper. Which brings us to annual costs for checking accounts too. With an average checking account costing around $350 a year, sending paper statements, printing checkbooks that are never used, charging big fees for wire transfers so that you prop-up your dying legacy check business, all smacks of a business driven by inertia.

What’s my account balance?
This is the number one requested piece of information from the bank today, and while we provide internet banking access to this piece of information, the dominant method of a customer getting this is still through an ATM or through the call centre. A far simpler mechanism would be sending the account balance via text message when a major transaction occurs, at set intervals (say weekly) or as defined by the customer. The cost of sending a text of your balance to a customer 10 times a month, is less than the cost of one call to the call centre for the same information, and less than two ATM balance enquiries (based on current channel cost estimates). The deployment of mobile wallets will massive reduce these ongoing costs as well.

Investment prioritization

In terms of size of budget, here is my rough take on where the investment prioritization is occurring across the board:

  1. Mobile
    Clearly, whether it is deploying new mobile apps, iPad apps, playing with mobile wallets, or geo-location features and offers, Mobile is the big play in 2012 and everyone wants a part of the action.
  2. Social Media
    From deploying monitoring stations, building service paths organization-wide to cope with social media requests and incidents, building new loyalty programs powered by social platforms, or trying to tap-in to friends, likes and advocacy, social media is a big play this year.
  3. Acquisition/JVs/New Appointments
    Acquisitions are a tough one because it is only the larger organizations who are looking at this, but there’s an effort to acquire key skills, technology and business practices emerging though acquisition, and significant dedicated funds for exploring new lines of business. With CapitalOne’s acquisition of INGDirect, and other moves, we’re going to start to see this being a sizeable component of global plays in the space as the bigger players try to acquire core capability. We’ve seen banks like Comm Bank in Australia start to make strategic investments in core skills at the top, such as the appointment of Andy Lark, along with major changes in their budgets internally around digital. While Andy is billed as the Chief Marketing Officer, he bares little resemblance to the marketing officers of most banks traditionally.
  4. Core Systems replacement to cope with channel mix
    I think this one is obvious
  5. PFM, Big Data and Analytics
    I’ve put all these in one bucket, which isn’t really fair, but for many organizations the start to collating their big data into useful information only occurs through the move to PFM (Personal Financial Management) tools behind the login. The need to connect people to their money, to target cross-sell and up-sell messages and otherwise monetize account activity and data, is a big priority.
  6. Engagement Marketing and Collaboration
    Increasingly we’re seeing dedicated efforts at partnerships, API layers, new marketing initiatives across broader platforms and other such mechanisms. We’re starting to see a new slew of ‘business development’ and ‘partnership’ resources emerge as banks look beyond their own walls for growth opportunities. Expect this to grow significantly over the next 3 years as we see more JV, incubation and acquisition budgets emerge as well.

The downside to the shift

Clearly these changes are all good for staying relevant to consumers, changing business practices to adapt to new behaviors, and better aligning costs with operations as they shift. However, the downside is that as you move away from legacy operations there’s a lot of dead wood.

AUSTRALIA is on the cusp of a white-collar recession with insiders warning that thousands of jobs are at risk in the finance sector, after it emerged yesterday that ANZ planned to cut 700 jobs.

While many banks used the global financial crisis to ‘downsize’, the reality is that there are going to continue to be significant job cuts in the sector as a result of re-tasking the organization for the new reality. In fact, my estimates are that we’ll lose many more jobs to the ‘shift’ than we did in the global financial crisis. Sure, there will be new hires as well, but the reality is as we downsize branch staff, manual operations and traditional marketers, we simply don’t need the volume of skills to replace them on the digital front. Even in-branch we’ll be using technology to avoid queues, speed up transactions, and hence reduce branch staff footprints.

Joshua Persky, an unemployed banker, on the job trail

It’s inevitable in the shift to digital within finance, that some humans will be replaced by technology efficiency gains. As we really start to see digital making progress, those legacy skills sets will become glaringly obvious on the balance sheet. Unfortunately, it’s either lose legacy operations staff or lose customers and profitability.

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P2P a force to be reckoned with

In P2P Lending, Social Networking on December 14, 2011 at 09:28

No one could doubt that peer-to-peer lending (or P2P Lending) has landed big time in 2010, but it looks as if the best is just about to come.

The US leader Lending Club will issue more than $250 million in loans this year – greater than the last four years combined – for a total of nearly $450 million since inception.  Their last $100 million increment in their total loan portfolio growth came in just 4 months from the period July through November 2011.  Their returns have been stable throughout the market turmoil of the past few years – thanks in part to their focus on prime credit consumers – with an annualized default rate below 3%.

Prosper has seen 370% year-on-year growth in their business in 2011 lending over $70MM this year and bringing their total to more than $260m to-date , with a default rate of around 5.2%. Compared with BofA whose default on credit cards has been at an annualized basis of around 5.98% this year, down from a peak of 14.53% in August of 2009.

Zopa out of the UK has already lent more than £180 million (US$280m), which means they are now approaching a 2 per cent market share of the total UK retail lending market. The impressive thing about Zopa’s achievement is that their default rates are running at just 0.9%.

So who are lending from P2P lending networks?

If you believe the propaganda from the establishment, P2P lending is risky and only offers opportunistic financing to weak credit prospects – those that can’t get loans from traditional players. However, the reality is something entirely different.

The risk profile of P2P borrowers is often grossly overstated, and often the majority are healthy lenders simply looking for a better deal. That’s why P2P defaults are often as good as, if not better than, the majors.

“We can offer low rates in comparison to our banking competitors in part because we focus only on a select subset of customers — the most credit worthy borrowers — and our fair pricing is commensurate with their risk.”
Renaud Laplanche, CEO, Lending Club

The P2P lenders have also done considerable work on understanding the behavior of lenders, thus they don’t look just at the credit score (a lagging indicator of a default risk), but also at the future likelihood of a default.

“I think our low defaults aren’t just because of P2P but because we built a better credit model, taking more account of over-indebtedness and affordability than banks”
Giles Andrews, CEO, Zopa

These better models are helping P2P to thrive.

Tis’ the season for P2P Lending

There are times like Thanksgiving week in the US where P2P Lending is predictably slower than normal, but there are also times when P2P faces natural growth in demand.

“We’re gearing up for 50% increase in lending in January 2012, now that we’ve proven the viability of our business model.”
Giles Andrews, CEO, Zopa

I met with Scott Sanborn, the Chief Marketing Officer for Lending Club earlier in the year in San Francisco, but I got together with him via phone last week and asked him if there was seasonality to their lender’s behavior.

“We’ve always got a pop in January. Primarily because approximately two thirds of our loans historically are used to settle credit card debt.”
Scott Sanborn, CMO, Lending Club

Last week the Federal Reserve released its latest G19 report on consumer credit. Revolving consumer credit increased marginally (0.5%) for the first time in September of this year, and that trend has continued in October. Revolving credit card has been on the steady decline since 2008, down from a peak of $972Bn to a low of $790Bn in August of 2011. In 2009, that meant that every month saw a decline of close to $10Bn in revolving credit in the US. That trend has changed course in the second half of 2011 as borrowers return tentatively to credit facilities.

Revolving Credit has been on the decline since 2008, but this Christmas is set to rise again

Historically, December and January credit card debt always tends to shoot up due to Christmas shopping habits. Online lending around the end of the year has also been steadily increasing due to the primacy of the online channel, so it’s no surprise that as P2P awareness improves that P2P lending is set to rise this Christmas season too. The difference this Christmas, compared with the last 3 years, is that with revolving credit flattening out the spike in January is stacking up to be the biggest in P2P’s short history.

P2P – Maturing or Mature?

The other difference (in the US particularly) is that we’re seeing more sophisticated investors participating in P2P transactions, meaning that there will be an abundance of cash to support the demand for P2P credit. In fact, the major P2P players in the US are seeing institutional investors, high-net worth investors and the like looking to put cash into P2P. Not just to get a higher deposit rate, but to get that rate with only marginally greater risk – if at all.

Players like Zopa, Lending Club and Prosper are anticipating their largest January yet. In fact, this season is likely to be larger than the 2008-2010 lending seasons put together for the P2P market. If anyone had any remaining doubts about the viability of P2P lending, then I think we can put that to bed this season.

As the song goes… “It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas!”

Customers will never use Facebook to login to their bank!

In Engagement Banking, Future of Banking, Groundswell, Mobile Payments, Social Networking, Twitter on December 7, 2011 at 07:16

We’re experiencing a massive shift in consumer behavior right now with the explosion of Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and other community collaboration and social media platforms. A world where Facebook has 800 million inhabitants and a President who is a college dropout (albeit Harvard).

We’re seeing the global domination of mobile across the entire world, where before long every person on the planet will have a mobile phone – and soon that phone will be a wallet. Smartphone owners will be the majority in just a few years as smartphones are virtually free on contract, and unlimited data is bundled free. Already the average smartphone user spends more time using Apps than they do using an Internet browser on their computer.

The traditional players amongst us say that such things don’t really change the fundamentals, that “it will take time for people to trust these new mechanisms”.

I’ll never login with Facebook to my bank.

I won’t pay with my mobile phone unless I understand how secure it is. This NFC technology is too new and there’s no common standard.

Huh?

The same people who said this probably said…

I’ll never use email, there’s nothing like calling someone or a face-to-face discussion to solve a problem

I’ll never use an ATM machine, I don’t trust a machine to give me money.

I’ll never get a cell phone – I don’t want people to be able to call me whenever and wherever I am.

I will never put my credit card details on a website online – are you crazy?

I’ll never bank online. Not in my lifetime…

I’ll never need a Facebook account – it’s a waste of time, it’s just for college students.

Really?

If you are saying you won’t do something that millions of other people are already doing, that’s a sure sign that it’s going to disrupt the hell out of your business and you’re in trouble.

If you’re not planning to work differently, if you’re not thinking differently, then you’re just out of touch, you’re just one step away from irrelevance. You’re fighting the flow upstream and getting pushed towards disaster.

The one constant of the internet-enabled world is that you have to be ready to change constantly. Resistence is not only futile, it’s stupid and very costly in the long run. It’s cheap and easy to be social right now, same for mobile – it won’t be in the future.

Right now you have two choices.

Start experimenting with how to adapt to these new methods

Start figuring out what people want to talk about on social media. When they’re using their phones at a store, for searching on products, when they check-in, tweet or update their facebook status.

Start talking to them. Start sharing content that isn’t marketing messages pushed down their throat, but helps them.

Start trusting consumers to talk to you about your brand, your products and about what they want from their bank or services provider. Understand you can’t control the conversation, but you can and should participate in it.

Open up new products and services based on social media. Get consumers to give voice to their needs and help you form those ideas. OCBC, DBS, First Direct, ASB, Comm Bank are all trying different types of crowdsourcing to develop better relationships with their customer base.

OR… Ignore the obvious, get ready to be displaced

Our customers don’t feel safe using Facebook for login!

But some of them might… how long before most of them will? How do you meet your KYC requirements and keep customers safe when allowing them to do this? Are you going to wait till everyone else is doing it, or are you going to learn how to do it properly and securely now. Are you asking your compliance teams to find ways of figuring out how to do this stuff safely?

It will take years for the mobile wallet and NFC to take off!

Right now Google and Apple are eating your lunch and you don’t even know it. You are getting ready to write off the one device that is most critical for connections and context with your customers in the later part of this decade. Someone else is going to own your customers, and as banks we’re going to be paying the likes of Google to include our branded card in their wallet, or our products and services and messages on their platform.

We already have to ask permission from Google and Apple to give our customers our App.

Don’t want to change! You will…

The fact is most of the last two decades we’ve been facing constant change, and no one organization has been able to resist the shift because customers decide how and when you’ll engage with them.

Customers have already decided they want their mobile device to be their bank. They’ve already decided that they want to discuss your brand and your service capability in the open community of social media.

Now it’s time for you to decide that you want to stay relevant to your customers. Or ignore the obvious and go away.

Can Social Media Bring Down a Bank?

In Economics, Future of Banking, Social Networking, Strategy on November 23, 2011 at 00:26

Bankers often talk about the ‘trust’ consumers have in banking as a defining characteristic of why customers give banks their money instead of simply keeping it under a mattress. Some bankers might have difficulty understanding why customers of today seem perfectly happy to give money to the likes of PayPal, M-PESA, Lending Club or Zopa. The fact that I trust PayPal to send money on my behalf, in lieu of banks, might have been unthinkable just a few years ago. The concept of lending money through a social network would have seemed laughable too. Part of this is that we just don’t trust banks like we used to, and alternatives seem far less risky comparatively.

Reputational risk is surfacing in the sector as a whole today through social movements like “Occupy Wall Street”, “Bank Transfer Day” and other actions led by frustrated consumer groups and collectives. As an industry, we’re not organizing a structured approach to this challenged perception of ‘banking’. Instead we’re often trying to defend the indefenisble, a system saddled by inertia that assumes we have far greater responsibility to our shareholders, than we do to the customers we are supposed to serve.

Not the Regulator’s problem

At the European Retail Banking Summit held in London on November 8th, 2011, I pitched to European regulators the issue of Social Media, the Occupy Movement and what their position was towards the increased transparency that retail banks were facing. Martin Merlin (Head of Financial Services Policy and Relations with the Council, European Commission) and Philip Reading (Director, Financial Markets Stability and Bank Inspections, Oesterreichische Nationalbank) were at a loss to understand the role of regulators in defining a coordinated industry response. Martin’s response was telling:

“It’s simply not on our radar yet as regulators”
Martin Merlin, Head of Financial Services Policy, European Commission

Customers finding their voice

The new voice of the populace is demonstrated with no greater effect than through the so-called “Arab Spring” across the MENA region. If Twitter, YouTube and Facebook can overturn regimes in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, I’m pretty sure they can totally undermine the brand of a bank that we’ve previously thought was “Too Big To Fail”.

To add credibility to that notion, in just months we have seen the Occupy Movement develop into a global protest against the economic and social inequality promoted by the current “system”. Consumers today have found their voice. Increasingly that voice is about choice, about rewarding organizations that listen and punishing those that think their decisions are immune from public debate or dialogue.

Prior to social media, the thought of rapid political change in a country like Egypt would have been considered extremely unlikely, a real outlier. Is there a measurable effect of this voice of the consumer on retail financial institutions today? Absolutely.

In January 2011, Bank of America’s (BofA) post financial crisis share price had recovered to $15.31 at its peak. As of this blog post, BofA’s stock is ranging at $5-5.50. This is instructive. Stocks with a historical Beta (β) of 1 are generally tracking flat for the year. So why has BofA lost more than 50% of its value in the last 12 months, compared with a market and contemporaries that have remained flat over the same period?

Bank of America's share price is at a 2-year low

Overlaying stock trading volumes and pricing, against average and cumulative sentiment (via social media analysis) shows that public displeasure with the company direction and engagement has been a core driver in BofA’s troubles. What is clear is that BofA would not have considered consumer sentiment a significant driver in their share price in the past. They simply could not have run their retail bank badly enough to result in this type of dip in the past unless there was some sort of significant and very public scandal resulting in massive losses. The market is obviously now pricing in concern about the long-term viability of a brand that doesn’t have affinity with the consumers it serves.

A great infographic from EvoApp showing the correlation between sentiment and share price for BofA

What to do next?

Understanding consumer sentiment, and actively managing the brand in this open dialog is going to be a key skill in the near term. This is not about ‘spin’ or control, because as Egypt and the Occupy Movement has shown, you can’t control these forces.

Instead what will be critical is the capability to respond visibly to the markets concern, to improve sentiment. In BofA’s case, the leveraging new Debit Card fees, claiming BofA had a “right to make a profit” and then dropping the planned fees – is no way to demonstrate strategic understanding of consumer sentiment in the social age.

We need a lens on sentiment that drives strategy. This requires a very different board room and executive feedback loop that simply does not exist today.

Your online marketing and website are broken

In Customer Experience, Internet Banking, Media, Offer Management, Social Networking, Strategy on November 9, 2011 at 12:42

There’s generally a very poor understanding of the dynamics of the role of the website in retail financial services interactions today. There is an acceptance that ‘some’ customers use the web, when deciding on a new financial services relationship, but not of the critical nature of the web in that choice. Let me explain how things are different from a behavioral perspective.

The inertia assumptions

Historically the majority of acquisition in the financial services space was either from brand marketing and/or campaign activity that drove a potential customer to purchase or apply for a Retail FS product/service.  There is an assumption that the web, social media, mobile and other e-channels support that goal as marketing channels where we can extend the brand and campaign paradigm. That is, we can broadcast more messages, perhaps with a tighter demographic or psychographic focus, to an audience that is more diverse in their message consumption.

The problem is that the Internet has been responsible for a significant process shift in buying behavior, namely that the dynamics of buyer response has significantly flattened. In the past marketing stimuli was used to create first awareness, then interest that led to the buyer mentally listing your ‘brand’ on a sort of short-list of providers, and then finally based on further marketing stimuli (promotion, pricing, location, features) the consumer engages with your brand for your product or service. This approach to marketing is all based on the premise that consumer behavior is latent or responds to a marketing message over a defined period of time.

Now with digital interactions being what they are, a consumer can go straight from research to purchase or need to application instantly. So the ‘stimuli’ works differently today, it needs to be a ‘live’ interaction strategy, not a message strategy that waits for a latent response. The loser in this context is the traditional marketing campaign mechanism, because a campaign is a latent stimuli tool, not an interaction tool.

The new engagement model

So in this new world, buying behavior is very different. Assume a customer needs a retail financial services product like a mortgage, a new bank account, a credit card or a personal loan – what does he or she do?

The overwhelming behavior today is to think about how they will apply for that product or service, with the least fuss. They will probably be largely ambivalent to their choice of financial services provider, in that, the fact that they have a bank account with you does not automatically mean they’ll come to you for another product necessarily. What the majority of customers will do is start by looking at their options – and for that they use Google (or perhaps YouTube) as their starting point.

This research phase is critical, because it is the empowerment of the customer. Them matching your product to their needs set. What’s critical in this stage is not the features of the product generally, but the utility of the product. Take a mortgage – how quickly can they buy their house, how much do they need to pay each month and how quickly will they own their  home? They don’t start by asking what are the early pay out fees, what’s the rate, and can they change their payment terms or habits midstream.

The concept that this research needs to happen at ‘your bank’ is a holdover from our traditional branch approach to FI product sales. In fact, we build our Internet banking sites just like a branch – assuming that you’ll come, ask some questions and then apply for a product. Most of the time, we won’t let you apply for a product seamlessly through our Internet branch, and we’re aiming to push you to a ‘real’ branch. This is inertia talking and it is counter-intuitive based on behavior today.

The easiest thing to do is simply shift me straight from research to a buying action once I have you online, but the more complex that is, the more chance that I’ll simply leave your Internet branch and go looking online for a faster path to the solution. What won’t happen is that I’ll suddenly be inspired to walk into your branch and start talking to a person after reading your website.

What the new web looks like

The new web we need to build right now is a set of tools to empower customers and help them complete the buying task they are looking for as seamlessly and as frictionlessly as possible. In that environment, the rolling promotions and offers we see dominating many retail FI websites today will be largely gone, relegated to simple landing pages connected to those dying campaigns.

The new website will be rich in imagery and process workflow for the engagement process, heavily personalized around what I already know about you, either through cookies, login or something like your facebook connected profile.

Additionally, the new website will be built from the ground up to be browser agnostic. It will work on a tablet, on a mobile phone, on a laptop with a whole range of resolutions and screen sizes – seamlessly. You won’t build buttons that require a mouse click, you can use your finger. You won’t populate with lots of text or links, when big images or stories will accomplish the same stimuli to an engagement.

Apple's website works as well on Tablet and Mobile, as it does online

Coming out of all of this will be a fundamental shift in marketing budgets and team structures. In just 3 years, 30% of your website visitors will be using a non-PC screen. Social media will represent 25% of your marketing budget driving brand advocacy and participation, and 50% will be on engagement and journeys, and the rest on a supporting framework of traditional media to build broader brand awareness.